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July 20–August 2: Another ceasefire fails

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With intensified airstrikes, which have killed scores of civilians, along with relentless fighting over the southern port city of Aden, the situation in Yemen has escalated over the past two weeks in the face of continuing international calls for a ceasefire. On July 25, Saudi Arabia announced a unilateral humanitarian pause, scheduled to go into effect the following day, which Yemenis and international observers hoped would provide an opportunity for badly-needed aid to enter the country. This pause, however, was quickly broken by both Saudi-led airstrikes and ground combat, just two hours after it went into effect. Each side blamed the other for violating the respite, echoing the scenario seen on the first day of a previous humanitarian pause. Pro-Houthi/Saleh forces continued their attacks in Aden city, where they shelled the international airport and neighborhoods recently captured by the resistance. Likewise, Coalition airstrikes continued to pound the bases of those forces in Aden and elsewhere.

Just before announcing the planned ceasefire, Saudi planes bombed civilian residences in the Red Sea coast city of Mokha, killing at least 65 people in an attack that Human Rights Watch has called “an apparent war crime.”

In an attempt to “entirely liberate” Aden and advance into other cities, at least 3000 Coalition-trained Yemeni fighters have reportedly been deployed in Aden—one day after Vice President/PM Khaled Bahah briefly visited the city with six other ministers from the Hadi government in exile. The trip was seen as the first step toward restoring the government’s provisional capital. On the same day, President Hadi issued a decree appointing three new advisors. Hadi has also recently announced plans to unite all local resistance groups into the “national army,” a plan that will likely face resistance.

The leader of the Houthi Movement, ‘Abd al-Malik al-Houthi, made a televised speech on August 2, trying to justify his loss of Aden while continuing to defy the Saudi-led coalition.

Although Aden has been the epicenter of Yemen’s civil conflict, other areas including Lahj, Abyan, al-Baydha, Taʻiz and Marib have seen violent clashes between the pro-Houth/Saleh forces and the resistance fighters over the past week.

Missile attacks across the Saudi border have also continued. Pro-Houthi/Saleh units have recently fired tens of missiles at Najran and Jaizan cities, part of what they have described as “the strategic options.” A number of Saudi soldiers were reportedly killed and captured.

In the capital, Sanʻa, the self-proclaimed local chapter of the Islamic State (IS) has, for the first time, attacked a mosque frequented by members of the Isma’ili sect, commonly known as Bohrah, who are seen by some as supportive of Houthis. At least 10 people were killed and wounded.

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Selected readings, July 30

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We have some exciting original posts coming in the very near future, but in the meantime, here are a few recent articles everyone should read: On Wednesday a car bomb exploded outside a mosque in San‘a frequented by members of the Bohra or Isma'ili sect. The bombing was claimed by members of the Islamic State's "wilayat San‘a," who have claimed a number of previous mosque bombings. The IS statement accused the Bohra community of supporting the Houthis.

Reuters reports that local resistance groups, with help from Saudi and Emirati military advisors (read: Special Forces) and Saudi-trained Yemeni fighters, are making gains in the northern and eastern outskirts of Aden. The resistance has reportedly driven Houthi forces out of suburban positions from which they'd been shelling Aden over the last two weeks. As always, take phrases like "Forces loyal to exiled President Hadi" with a grain of salt; very few of the groups fighting in Aden are interested in the prospect of a new Hadi administration.

The Washington Post has a more detailed piece on the anti-Houthi coalition's consolidation of control in Aden. President Hadi and his allies want to use Aden as a beachhead for a wider advance into Yemen, which would probably involve a lot more Saudi/GCC troops on the ground. President Hadi has also recently announced plans to consolidate all local resistance groups into the "national army," a plan that will face plenty of, um, resistance (see above).

Human Rights Watch has released two important reports in the last week. Yesterday they put out this one, on the use of indiscriminate shelling by Houthi forces in Aden. Houthi tactics in the southern city, which failed to distinguish civilians from combatants, constitute war crimes. A couple of days earlier, HRW reported on the Saudi bombing of a block of residential buildings attached to a power plant in the Red Sea coastal city of al-Mokha. According to HRW investigators, there were no military targets at or near this location, making its targeting "an apparent war crime." The bombing killed at least 65 civilians, including ten children.

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July 14–20: Resistance consolidates gains in Aden

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Editor's note: I'm filling in for Mohammed Ali Kalfood on this week's press review. Mohammed will return next week. Since launching a major counteroffensive against pro-Houthi/Saleh forces last week, resistance forces in Aden have swept down from the city's northern areas into the districts of Sirah/Crater, al-Ma'ala, and al-Tawahi. As of Monday evening, local sources report that the resistance has control of al-Tawahi--the last district held by Houthi/Saleh forces--and is conducting house-to-house searches for remaining enemy fighters. 

In retaliation for the loss of Aden, Houthi/Saleh forces outside the city limits have been shelling the neighborhood of Dar Sa'd since Sunday. According to Medicins Sans Frontieres, at least 100 people--mostly civilians, including women and children--have died in the bombardment, with hundreds more injured.

The transportation minister of Yemen's government in exile told press on Monday that a technical team from the UAE had arrived in Aden to repair the city's international airport. Right now San'a has the only functioning airport in the country, making it impossible for aid groups to bring supplies into the south by air.

On Thursday, a group of ministers from the exiled government of President Hadi arrived in Aden, escorted by Saudi security forces. The ministers reportedly met with resistance leaders. Following those meetings, President Hadi announced the appointment of Aden's new governor, former deputy governor Nayef al-Bakri, who recently has served as the head of a body representing several resistance groups.

On Sunday, a Saudi airstrike killed 24 civilians in Ibb, and set off secondary explosions that wounded many more.

The UN's refugee agency reported last week that more than 10,000 refugees have arrived in Yemen from east Africa since March. Smugglers are apparently telling refugees that the war in Yemen is over in order to profit from their transport. According to UNHCR, the total number of Yemenis displaced inside the country or seeking refuge abroad is now 1,267,590.

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July 7-15: Ceasefire fails, resistance gains ground in Aden

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Despite the “humanitarian pause” announced last week by UN Special Envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed, Saudi-led airstrikes and ground combat continued in several parts of Yemen last week. Pro-Houthi/Saleh units continued to carry out cross-border attacks on Saudi military bases. UN officials and international aid organizations reported that 21.1 million people urgently need humanitarian relief. On Thursday, the UN envoy to Yemen stated that parties had agreed on a weeklong humanitarian pause, which would come into effect on Friday at midnight. But Saudi Arabia and its allies continued their aerial attacks, claiming that they had not received instructions to stop from the Hadi government, directly contradicting the UN envoy’s statement.

At least 10 cities across the country have been hit over the past week by airstrikes targeting pro-Houthi/Saleh bases in densely populated areas. Over 20 people were killed in Sanʻa in the first two days of the unobserved truce.

Grain mills and water tanks in Aden were pounded by airstrikes, while Houthi/Saleh fighters continued to shell Aden’s oil refinery and the adjacent port. The outpatient clinics of the military hospital in Sanʻa and the Haradh Public Hospital in Hajjah were both knocked out. The national cement factory was struck in Amran. The Health Ministry in Sanʻa reported that “medical services have totally stopped in 11 provinces.”

Meanwhile, fighting on the ground between Houthi/Saleh forces and local resistance groups raged on in Aden, Lahj, al-Dhaliʻ, Taʻiz, Marib, and al-Jawf.

Saudi planes also continued to provide air cover for resistance fighters in those six areas, despite an allegedly botched airstrike on a military base in Hadramout, which killed over 50 soldiers believed to be loyal to Hadi. Resistance fighters in Aden regained control of several areas on Tuesday, including the international airport. This victory has served as a morale boost for the wider resistance. President Hadi’s representatives announced that the exiled president was personally overseeing the Aden counteroffensive, dubbed Operation Golden Arrow. Disputing more credible accounts, the Houthi-controlled state press agency reported on Wednesday that Houthi/Saleh forces had defeated the resistance and were in control of al-Mansurah district.

On the Yemen-Saudi borders, Houthi/Saleh units have continued to launch missile attacks on military bases outside Najran and Jaizan cities. On several occasions, these units have also made forays across the borders to these Saudi bases.

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Southern resistance turns the tables in Aden

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Resistance fighters in the southern city of Aden--which has been facing the brunt of pro-Houthi/pro-Saleh aggression since March--launched a major counteroffensive on Tuesday, retaking Khor Maksar district and Aden International Airport and reportedly pushing Houthi/Saleh forces out of parts of Aden's lower districts as well. According to reports that have circulated quietly in recent days, the Saudi-led coalition has been bringing heavy weapons, vehicles, and coalition-trained Yemeni fighters into Burayqah Port for several weeks in preparation for this assault. Along with these assets, the coalition also provided air support to resistance fighters as they advanced across northern Aden.

Five important things to note about today's events:

  1. Though Adenis and people throughout the south are celebrating, I expect there's still a lot of fighting to come in this part of the country. Even if the Houthi/Saleh forces are driven out of Aden completely (they haven't been, yet), there are several factions in the area that don't all get along. They're all armed now, and there's still no central Adeni leadership to which they all answer.
  2. No matter what you read in the papers, the resistance fighters in Aden are not "pro-Hadi" or "pro-government" or "loyalists." They are mostly pro-independence, and some will resist any attempt by the Hadi government or Saudi Arabia to take control.
  3. Fighters aligned with AQAP and/or IS are present in Aden. They are by no means the leading faction there, but they are in the mix, and they have their own agenda.
  4. A victory for the resistance won't mean an end to the humanitarian catastrophe in Aden. According to the World Food Program, even the Saudi-controlled ports weren't open for aid deliveries today. Furthermore, as long as the Saudi blockade continues to shut out commercial traffic, Aden and Yemen will not have enough food or fuel to survive.
  5. I don't have anything definite or insightful to say about Yemen's relevance to larger geopolitical events, but it might not be a coincidence that this offensive started just around the time the US and Europe announced the conclusion of a political deal with Iran.

I've set up a Google map of Aden and its environs, marking a couple of important locations. The map is edit-able, so please feel free to add your own notes and markers:

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YPP and House of Light on KPFK

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I appeared on yesterday's episode of Middle East in Focus, a radio show broadcast on KPFK here in southern California, to talk about the current situation in Yemen, US foreign policy, and the work of the YPP. Also featured on the show was Sahar Nuraddin, co-founder of the House of Light Foundation in Aden. For the last couple months we've been helping House of Light raise money for their initiative to provide clothing and hygiene kits to women displaced by the war.  You can find the episode here (it's the July 12 listing). I think my interview is worth listening to, but I really encourage readers to listen to Sahar's interview, which follows mine at about 16:30. Aden is under a near-total state of siege now, and residents have only sporadic internet and phone service, so it's very valuable to to hear a first-hand perspective on the situation there. Sahar's perspective, as a full-time NGO worker and aid provider with contacts all throughout Aden Governorate, is particularly informative.

And don't forget to support the very important work Sahar and House of Light are doing. You can learn more and donate here.

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EU Parliament condemns violence by Houthis, Saleh, KSA

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The plenary session of the European Parliament adopted today a resolution on the current conflict in Yemen. Beyond the standard "expressions of concern" and calls for restraint, there are a couple of clauses in this resolution that are particularly noteworthy. Overall, it's a more impassioned and strongly-worded document than we usually expect to see in such cases.  The most striking thing about this resolution is that it positions the EU, as a body, outside the conflict. It does this by criticizing the Saudi-led coalition as well as the Houthi-Saleh alliance. Here's a key paragraph (#3, emphasis mine):

[The European Parliament] Condemns the destabilising and violent unilateral actions taken by the Houthis and military units loyal to ex-President Saleh; also condemns the air strikes by the Saudi-led coalition and the naval blockade it has imposed on Yemen, which have led to thousands of deaths, have further destabilised Yemen, have created conditions more conducive to the expansion of terrorist and extremist organisations such as ISIS/Da’esh and AQAP, and have exacerbated an already critical humanitarian situation;

Compare that to, for example, the UN Security Council's Resolution 2216, which condemns the Houthis' actions, but implicitly approves of the Saudi-led intervention. What makes the paragraph above really interesting is that a number of EU member states--specifically the UK, France, and Belgium--are involved in the Saudi bombing campaign in one way or another. In fact, the voting record for today's resolution shows a very interesting amendment, which will be added to the finalized version of the text:

[The European Parliament] Expresses its concern regarding the intensive arms trade of EU Member States with various countries in the region, as in the case of the United Kingdom, Spain, France and Germany; calls on the Council in this connection to verify whether there have been breaches of the EU Common Position on Arms Export Controls and to adopt measures to ensure that this common position is fully respected by all the Member States;

You can find a provisional PDF copy of the full resolution here.

 

#OurYemen: a letter from San‘a

This post was sent to us by a special guest contributor, Fatima Noman. Fatima is 16 years old, and lives in San‘a. She's in her third year of high school, or would be if the schools were open. 
Even after 3 months and a fortnight the sounds of war crafts still terrify me. My mother promised if I heard their utterance they are far away. Regardless, whenever I apprehend the sounds of them my heart beats rapidly and my stomach clenches. As soon as I hear the missile explode I taste death one more time. I remember when I conjectured that the tang of death is sweet. I was raised to be strong, heard headed and invincible this coalition made me question my strength, do I in sooth have any strength?

I always knew politics was dirty business and I know no one cared much for Yemen, including the UN, but seeing all the genocides and terror I can't even imagine how they sleep at night. Are they intact of their humanity?
Putting all my fears and all my worries aside; this country is something else. Every time I scramble out of the house crying of trepidation from those war crafts expecting everyone to feel as I do but I am bewildered by the reality. The fact people are on the streets, in the shops, chatting and humming as if nothing just happened. I used to believe & genuinely presume that I got my strength from my parents' unconditional love, but the coalition proved to me that I got my strength from my country. This country speaks a million languages that include; compassion, mercy, altruism, strength, authenticity & most importantly love. This country may not comprise modern architecture, but we were the first to build gravity defying skyscrapers. This country might not be filled with malls & 5-star hotels but I can assure you our guests never leave feeling anywhere less than home. This country might not be the richest - not because it's poor but rather no one has enhanced its 2300km worth of islands, our natural gas, our petrol, our agriculture or our harvest's- but I solemnly swear every Yemeni has a heart of gold. You will never feel alone here, this land embraces and captivates any one who speaks one of her million languages.
Heritage is one thing you'll find in Yemen more than any other country I'm not being prejudice or bias, our history goes back to 5000 BC. Our aging houses are filled with people, generations live in the same homes through out the decades. That's how exceptional our architecture is.
I believed this coalition would make me hate Yemen because I must admit before 2015 I wasn't much of a patriot. These air raids might have corrupted a small part of my 16 year old mind but I can assure you this country has given back and is continuously giving me back strength I never knew I had in me. Hope I never knew existed. Passion. Courage. Compassion. Pride.
If I do end up dying because of a missile from the Saudi led coalition I am honored to have died in my Mother's embrace. Surrounded by my heritage. My pride. My land.
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June 30–July 6: UN envoy pushes for humanitarian pause, civilian toll rises

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Following last month’s failed peace talks in Geneva, the past week started with renewed efforts by UN special envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed to achieve a humanitarian pause during the holy month of Ramadan. Last week the envoy met with the exiled government in the Saudi capital Riyadh, where a seven-point proposal was tendered; on Sunday Ahmed arrived in Sanʻa to discuss the proposal with Houthi and GPC leaders. But a Scud missile, which was fired late on Tuesday night at a Saudi airbase outside Riyadh, added new tension to the process of the political negations. Saudi forces have traded missile attacks across the border with Houthi-Saleh units, which have also carried out hit-and-run assaults on Saudi military sites outside Jaizan and Najran cities near the boundary. The Houthi leadership reportedly refused the exiled government’s first cease-fire proposal, which called for the deployment of regional observers.

Toward the end of the week, the UN—along with both US State Department and EU officials—attempted to put pressure on Saudi Arabia to reach a deal. But Saudi airstrikes intensified in several cities, where dozens of civilians have been killed, a move that was seen as a Saudi response to the UN-backed efforts. The capital Sanʻa has since been hit by heavier bombardment, after a lull of nearly five days. On Monday, a Saudi airstrike reportedly hit a public market in Lahj, just north of Aden, killing 45 civilians and injuring dozens more.

Over the weekend, Houthi delegates in the Omani capital, Muscat, met with the UN envoy; “a humanitarian pause was discussed,” according to press accounts. On Sunday, the Houthi supporters in Sanʻa staged a mass rally, condemning “the Saudi aggression and the UN’s careless position on the humanitarian situation,” hours after Special Envoy Ahmed arrived at the city’s international airport.

While the Houthis mull over forming a new government or a presidential council, Saleh’s GPC party and the Yemeni Socialist Party have both refused such a move.

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June 23-29: No progress toward peace; Aden refinery destroyed

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The Saudi-led aerial offensive and the civil conflict on the ground continue into a fourth month now. Over 2800 Yemenis have been killed and thousands of others injured, while over one million have been internally displaced.  Saudi Arabia’s stated goals haven’t yet been achieved: the pro-Houthi/Saleh forces keep on advancing, while President Hadi and his government are still in exile. The humanitarian situation has become more dire than ever: 8.6 million Yemenis need urgent medical help; 21.1 million need some form of humanitarian assistance, while half of Yemen’s population is food insecure.

Moreover, the health system has been virtually paralyzed, and Dengue fever on—top of Malaria—has rapidly spread, particularly in the coastal areas. In addition to a score of dengue fever cases registered in the port city of Mukalla in Hadramout province, 85 cases have been registered in the historical town of Hajarayn alone over the past week.

Last Monday, after the collapse of the Geneva talks, the Houthi-Saleh delegation headed to Oman, where they reportedly held talks with Southern Movement leaders. Flying back to Sanʻa Friday, the airplane carrying the delegates was prevented from landing in the Sana’a International Airport. After finally landing on Saturday, a delegate stated that the Houthis are mulling over the prospect of forming a partnership government, and that they have no plans to attend additional peace talks.

The Saudi-led airstrikes have been hitting several cities since the beginning of Ramadan, mainly where ground fighting is taking place, in Marib, al-Jawf, Aden, Taʻiz, Lahj, al-Baydha, and Shabwah. Other cities, including Hajjah, al-Hudaydah, and Raima were also hit by airstrikes over the past weeks.

Two historical sites in both Raima and Hajjah were struck, bringing to 25 the number of such sites that have been targeted by Saudi warplanes. In the southern city of Aden, Houthi fighters shelled the only oil refinery, destroying much of the city’s fuel reserves and releasing a massive cloud of oil smoke over residential areas.

Continuing their cross-border missile attacks, the pro-Houthi/Saleh fighters have targeted military sites near Jaizan city. Three Saudi soldiers along with an Emirati were reportedly killed.

 

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June 16-22: Geneva talks fail, IS kills civilians in Sanʻa

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News coverage over the past week has been dominated by the UN-sponsored talks in Geneva, which yielded no tangible results. Bombings attributed to local affiliates of the Islamic State have also drawn the attention. The failure of Geneva talks, which wrapped up on Friday, seemed to be well predicted in the local press coverage. On Tuesday, UN Special Envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed opened the preliminary consultations with the conflicting parties after the Houthi-led delegates from Sanʻa were finally able to arrive in Geneva. But the delegates from Riyadh (representing the Hadi regime in exile) and Sanʻa refused to meet in one place; the talks were conducted with the two groups in separate rooms. In the end, mediators failed to come up with the hoped-for seven-point statement, which would have included a ceasefire during the holy month of Ramadan.

Meanwhile, the Saudi-led airstrikes continued to hit several cities across the country as the pro-Houthi/Saleh forces continued to advance in the adjacent governorates of Marib and al-Jawf.

On Saturday, hours after the Geneva talks came to an end, airstrikes hit the runways of Sanʻa International Airport and al-Dailami Airbase in the capital, which was seen as a way of preventing the Houthi-led delegates from returning to Sanʻa. On Sunday, Sirah Fortress in Aden and the Great Dam of Marib were both hit by Saudi airstrikes.

Although the airstrikes were providing air cover for the so-called “popular resistance” fighters over the past week, the pro-Houthi/Saleh forces claimed to have captured three tribal encampments—Nakhla, al-Suhail, and Labant—out of five spread alongside the capital city of the oil-rich province of Marib. Moreover, clashes continued to rage in the southern cities of Aden, al-Dhaliʻ and Lahj as well as the central cities of Taʻiz and al-Baydha.

Meanwhile, the self-proclaimed Sanʻa-based branch of the Islamic State has resurfaced, having been quiet since its devestating March attack on mosques frequented by Houthi loyalists (among others). On the eve of Ramadan (Wednesday), four car bombs simultaneously targeted two Sanʻa mosques, the Houthi Political Bureau, and the house of a leading member of Ansar Allah. On Saturday, the same group allegedly carried out another car bomb attack on a mosque in the Old City of Sanʻa, killing at least two people.

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Dengue Fever Spreads as Yemen's Health System collapses

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Since it began in March, Yemen’s civil war—bolstered by Saudi airstrikes and a crippling air and sea blockade—has brought about a near-total collapse of Yemen’s public health system. Now, on top of endemic diseases like malaria, Yemen’s coastal cities are witnessing a rapidly-escalating outbreak of dengue fever. Thousands of residents in five cities have contracted this contagious disease, chiefly in the Red Sea coast city of al-Hudaydah and the southern port city of Aden, according to the local health officials. The disease broke out in Aden and al-Hudaydah almost simultaneously, before spreading into other southern cities, reaching the southeastern province of Hadhramawt.

Dengue fever is caused by viruses transmitted to humans by mosquitoes. Though the viruses cannot pass directly from human to human, carriers of the disease infect mosquitoes that bite them, which subsequently pass the virus on to others.

The recurrence of dengue fever in these Yemeni coastal cities, however, seems to have a seasonal pattern. According to Director of Medical Doctors Association in al-Hudaydah, Najeeb Molhi, this infectious disease recurs annually in the city, with most cases occurring between November and March each year.

“The cases [of dengue fever] start emerging in November or December of each year and the peak incidence occurs in March,” said Molhi, who also reported that the ongoing fighting and blockade have made the health situation worse.

Due to both the Saudi-led air war and the civil conflict, the health system in Yemen has been virtually paralyzed: fighting on the ground has caused constant and widespread power outages and fuel shortages, while the months-long sea, land, and air blockade—imposed by the Saudis and their allies—has made it impossible for aid agencies to bring in sufficient medical supplies and fuels to this most impoverished Arab country.

“Yemen’s health system is on the verge of breakdown, and it is only thanks to the heroic efforts of the country’s health workers, the resilience of its brave people and the tireless efforts of national and international humanitarian organizations that any semblance of health care is being provided,” Dr. Ahmed Shadoul, WHO’s Representative to Yemen, was quoted as saying in a WHO press release.

More than 158 health facilities have been forced to shut down, according to UNICEF, and several hospitals have had to reduce their operations to specific units. The Health Ministry in the capital, Sanʻa, have said that at least 62 health facilities have been affected by the relentless air and ground warfare.

“Health infrastructure continues to be hit, with attacks reported on hospitals and ambulances, a medical warehouse, an oxygen factory, and a blood transfusion center,” said the WHO in a recent statement.

Now, roughly one third of Yemen’s population (8.6 million) needs urgent medical help and 80 percent (21.1 million) needs some form of humanitarian assistance, while half of the population is food insecure.

Al-Hudaydah (Governorate population: 2,621,000 people)

Dengue fever was first documented in Yemen in 1870. One of the country’s most significant outbreaks occurred in 1954, affecting 98% of the population of al-Hudaydah. This year in al-Hudaydah, where most of its populace lives below the poverty line, at least 2,700 residents have thus far been infected, out of which ten have died, the Director of Health Bureau in the city, Abdurrahman Jarallah, said in an interview.

Jarallah said that “most of the cases have occurred in the young people, particularly females,” indicating that dengue fever has also reached several rural areas and that tens of cases were not registered.

In early 2011, an infectious disease—known locally as Mukarfas in al-Hudaydah—was controversially identified as dengue fever. That March the disease spread to several rural areas of the governorate, claiming the lives of dozens of people, according to the local health bureau.

A recent study, published by BB Bulletin in February, concluded that dengue in al-Hudaydah was most commonly found among teenage and young adult males. Speaking to the YPP, Murad al-Ahdal, one of the four Yemeni authors of the BB Bulletin’s field study, said that patients observed in al-Hudaydah suffer three phases of the disease:

“Symptoms in the first phase start with fever and joint pains and last for seven days, while in the second phase the complications arise as the platelet count drops down to dangerous levels, along with acute blood loss, which can result in death if the patient isn’t given blood and the infected platelets isolated,” said al-Ahdal, who received top marks from Sanʻa University last year for his M.Sc thesis on how to detect and identify dengue viruses in Al-Hudaydah using PCR tests.

“The third phase is the most dangerous phase of infection; the patient would suffer a shock during the first three days along with blood clots in more than one place in the body,” which can result in sudden death.

Al-Ahdal believes that al-Hudaydah city has been “a hotbed of the dengue fever viruses since 1994, with three identified serotypes, which are transmitted by mosquitos of the family Flaviviridae.” His field-based thesis was the first in Yemen and the region to reveal the fourth serotype of flaviviruses.

Aden (population: 800,000 people)

In the southern coastal city of Aden, where the months-long civil conflict has left residents with virtually no food, clean drinking water, fuels, or sufficient medical help, more than 5,000 people have been infected by dengue fever as of last week.

Khadher Laswar, the Director of the Health Bureau in Aden, told the YPP via telephone that 5,042 dengue fever cases have been registered so far. “At least 219 people of various ages have died.”

The director indicated that the count of cases and fatalities in the areas where fighting is fierce is believed to be higher.

“So many people have been infected but couldn’t reach the hospitals, and many died in their homes,” he said.

Like in al-Hudaydah, sewage and garbage piles help mosquitoes, which transmit the dengue fever viruses, to procreate in Aden, but the relentless fighting, Laswar said, has worsened the health situation in the city despite the concerted efforts of a number of aid agencies.

The ICRC’s Yemen office said that four districts in the city—Crater (Sirah), Khor Maksar, al-Tawahi, and al-Maʻala—are “infested with dengue fever.”

Al-Mukalla (population: 531,205 people)

The port city of al-Mukalla in the southeastern Hadhramawt Governorate has so far seen scores of dengue fever cases, which are believed to have come from Aden. Over the last month, dozens of sick and injured people have arrived in al-Mukalla from Aden and neighboring governorates of Abyan and Shabwah.

Riyadh Jariri, the Director of Hadhramawt’s Health Bureau, said that “al-Mukalla is an infested area, as tens of dengue fever cases have emerged in a number of districts of the city.”

“At least 20 cases have so far been registered in the city, including six cases of people from outside al-Mukalla,” Riyadh said. As more and more Yemenis are displaced by fighting—over one million people have left their homes already—it’s likely that the disease will continue to spread.

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June 9–15: Geneva talks start without Houthis; Aden refinery shelled; airstrikes continue

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As Yemen’s war continues, media coverage over the last week focused on UN-sponsored negotiations, originally set to begin on Sunday. The three-day talks in Geneva, billed as “preliminary inclusive consultations,” which aim at ending the months-long war in Yemen, began on Monday, June 15, following week-long quibbles over the representation and the mechanism for talks. But the talks were inaugurated with only delegates of the exiled government in Riyadh in attendance, while the Yemeni delegates from Sanʻa—representing the Houthi movement and its allies—were stranded in Djibouti for nearly 24 hours. The talks were supposed to start Sunday, but were postponed after the delegates did not board the UN airplane at the Sanʻa International Airport on Friday.

Although the talks between the conflicting political parties were delayed, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon has already called for an immediate two-week ceasefire during the holy month of Ramadan, which is expected to begin on Thursday.

Over the past week, Saudi warplanes conducted airstrikes in at least 12 cities including the capital, Sanʻa, where both residential areas and pro-Houthi/Saleh figures were targeted.

On Friday, a neighborhood in the Old City of Sanʻa—a UNESCO World Heritage Site—was hit by airstrikes, flatting at least five houses and killing seven civilians. On Saturday, the home of former special forces commander Yahyah Mohammed Abdullah Saleh was hit along with other nearby houses of his relatives. Strikes continued past the official start of the Geneva talks; Sanʻa was reportedly struck by several airstrikes on Monday.

In cities where the civil conflict is intensifying, the Saudi-led airstrikes continue to provide air cover for the so-called “Popular Resistance.”

In the eastern city of Marib, two main tribal encampments, Nakhla and Suhail, were captured by the pro-Houthi/Saleh forces. In the neighboring Jawf province, these forces also captured the provincial city, Hazm, after weeks of heavy clashes. In southern city of Aden, the oil refinery was forced to halt operations, while fierce clashes took place in Maʻalla and Buraiqah areas. The central city of Taʻiz has seen the fiercest clashes in two months as mortar and tank shells have reportedly hit several downtown residential areas.

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Making a difference for displaced women and families [Updated]

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If you follow the YPP on Twitter or Facebook, you've probably seen me mention the House of Light Foundation recently. House of Light is a local organization based in Aden; we've worked with HoL's founders, Sahar and Alaa, on a few projects over the years. Right now we're helping them raise money to provide clean clothes and hygiene products to Adeni women who, along with their families, have been displaced from their homes by the fierce fighting and airstrikes in and around Aden. Thanks to several generous donors in the US and Europe, we've been able to send $2,000 to HoL so far. They've raised even more from local donors, enough to provide aid packages to 200 women. To thank everyone who has donated to HoL via our campaign page so far, and to encourage others to give, I want to share some photos that Sahar just sent me from Aden. In these you can see some of the colorful dresses that Sahar's grandmother has sewn (she makes kid-sized dresses with the fabric remnants), along with the soap and sanitary pads that are also included in each aid package. For House of Light, this campaign is a family affair; below you can see Sahar's mother and young cousin helping to prepare packages for the second group of 100 displaced women.

We're proud to help House of Light make a difference in the lives of displaced women and their families, and it's exciting to see the first 100 aid packages head out the door. But we're only starting to scrape the surface. With your gift, we can help our friends at House of Light do much more. Read more about this campaign here.

You can donate directly to the campaign using this widget:

If you're outside the US and the above widget doesn't work for you, you can also donate via Paypal:

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June 3-8: IDP count passes 1 million; Houthi missiles target KSA; Geneva talks confirmed

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It’s been nearly two months and a half (74 days as of Monday, June 8) since the Saudi-led aerial offensive was launched to achieve the stated goals: the Houthis’ advancement has not yet been halted, nor has been restored to power the exiled government in Riyadh. Over the past week, both pro-Houthi fighters and pro-Saleh forces intensified their cross-border attacks, while the Saudi airstrikes continued to pound their bases and target their leading members in several cities, including the capital, Sanʻa.

On Friday, the Republican Guards, loyal to the former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, failed to advance on the Saudi city of Jaizan, as Houthi fighters continued to attack the neighboring areas. On Saturday, pro-Houthi fighters fired a Scud missile targeting the Khamis Mushait airbase inside Saudi Arabia, but the Saudi Air Defense Forces intercepted the missile. Using such a ballistic missile in the battle, the Houthi spokesperson said, is like a “quantum leap” and a “warning message.”

As June 14 was finally set for the Geneva talks, the aerial and cross-border attacks intensified, and both sides have reinforced their positions. Such escalation of fighting is likely to undermine the UN-backed efforts, although the political parties, including the Houthis, have agreed to participate in the upcoming Geneva talks without preconditions. Meanwhile, Houthi delegates flew to the Russian capital, Moscow, for meetings with Kremlin officials, which follow their weeks-long talks with American and Iranian officials in the Omani capital, Muscat.

On the ground, combat continues to flare up largely in Aden, Taʻiz, Marib and al-Dhaliʻ cities as Saudi airstrikes serve as air cover for the so-called “popular resistance.”

As of May 31, over 2200 Yemenis had been killed across the country, half of them civilians, and 10,000 injured, while nearly 10,000 others have fled to Djibouti as refuges. The number of the IDPs has amounted to more than one million people; most of them are forced to live in public spaces and unhealthy conditions.

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May 27-June 2: Despite continuing negotiations, no end to fighting in sight

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The last week’s press coverage has chiefly focused on the continuous Saudi-led air war and the civil conflict on the ground, along with the cross-border attacks by pro-Houthi fighters. Also, the political talks in Oman and the UN-backed efforts in both Sanʻa and Riyadh have grabbed several headlines. The Saudi air war is now in its third month, and seems to be no closer to its stated goals of forcing a Houthi retreat and returning Abdu Rabu Mansur Hadi to power. Nearly 2000 people have so far been killed by this aerial war and the civil conflict, while 8,000 more have been injured. At least 10,000 Yemenis have sought refuge in Djibouti.

Aid agencies, which couldn’t bring in sufficient supplies during the first “humanitarian pause,” continue to voice their serious concerns over the catastrophic health situation. At least 158 health facilities have been shut down due to the war, while several others were struck by Saudi warplanes. Nearly 8.6 million people urgently need medical care, and local experts say roughly 13 million Yemenis urgently need aid of some kind. Yemen’s patrimony is also reportedly being ravaged by the airstrikes, including Dhamar’s historical museum and the Marib Dam.

Clashes between the pro-Saleh/pro-Houhti forces and their various opponents have continued to intensify in four Yemeni cities: Aden Taʻiz, Marib and Shabwa.

In the eastern Marib, more than a dozen Houthi/Saleh fighters were killed in Sirwah district and seven civilians were reportedly killed in the fighting. In Aden, clashes intensified in several districts including Khor Maksar, near the airport. In the central city of Taʻiz, the fighting downtown and the Saudi airstrikes have killed civilians after the pro-Houthi/Saleh forces captured a strategic mountain, home to the ancient and famous al-Qahirah Fortress. In the southeastern Shabwah Governorate, the Houthi/Saleh forces have advanced in the city and gained new areas. On the borders with Saudi Arabia, pro-Houthi fighters hit Najran’s airport along with military bases there and in Jaizan city as well. Their TV Channel, al-Masirah, aired footage of new, locally-produced missiles called “Earthquake.”

As the UN-sponsored conference in Geneva was postponed indefinitely, the Houthi delegates continued their talks in Oman over the past week, which are believed to involve US and Iranian officials. The delegates were reported to have reached an initial agreement to end the war in Yemen. But the exiled government in Riyadh rejected such an agreement, saying that “such talks will not make stability possible in Yemen.” The rival political parties seemed to have agreed on holding the Geneva conference in two weeks, following the UN envoy’s meeting on Monday with the exiled government in Riyadh – three days after he visited Sanʻa for the second time.

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Saudi Arabia has little incentive to deescalate

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If you haven't already, I strongly recommend that you read Adam Baron's latest piece of Yemen-alysis for the ECFR. In it, Baron does a great job of summarizing recent developments on several fronts (both literal and figurative) of Yemen's internationalized conflict. One of the most important points he makes is that Saudi Arabia's vicious campaign of airstrikes, while drawing considerable criticism from the outside world, is "remarkably popular" within Saudi Arabia. Here's how Baron puts it:

While the Saudi offensive has seemingly failed to notch up significant success, it has proven remarkably popular domestically. Furthermore, contacts have noted a surge of popularity for Mohammed bin Salman. These factors, in addition to Hadi and other exiled officials’ unreserved support for the offensive in the hopes that its success would lead to their return to power, have ensured that the Saudis are under little to no pressure to bring an end to the conflict. In short, while it may appear from the outside that Saudi Arabia is under tremendous pressure to end the war, from an internal perspective, it is just the opposite.

There's so much more packed into this short piece that everyone should read and take to heart, so please read the whole thing. But one other paragraph in particular is worthy of special attention here. It concerns the gains al-Qaeda has made since the start of the war.

As the power vacuum has been exacerbated, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has taken advantage to dramatic effect, seizing control of Mukalla and much of the eastern province of Hadramawt. For the first time, AQAP is openly and actively embedding itself in and coordinating with Yemeni tribes; tribal contacts in Shabwa have said that even a number of staunchly anti-AQAP tribal leaders have agreed to truces with the group. This suggests that the situation in Al-Bayda, where AQAP fighters have openly fought alongside anti-Houthi fighters, risks becoming the norm in much of the rest of the country.

So, Saudi Arabia continues to escalate and is eager to find allies inside Yemen who can actually fight and win. AQAP--one of the most effective fighting forces in the country--is operating in the open, and making new friends. I have an official policy about making predictions on this blog ("don't do it"), so I'll let you map out your own worst-case scenarios from here.