Ensuring the survival of state structures - Sana'a Center
A recent publication by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies outlines threats to Yemen’s domestic currency and state institutions, as a result of both the year-long war and the poor policies and mismanagement that preceded the conflict. Mansour Rageh, an economist with the Central Bank of Yemen (CBY) since 2003, explains that the Yemeni riyal and government institutions are critical for post-war rebuilding and that it is in all parties’ best interests (save those of IS and al-Qaeda) that they be preserved, so as to avoid the unnecessary expense of reviving them later. Considering the tremendously difficult conditions Yemen is witnessing right now, the country’s central bank and central government have done an impressive job of protecting the riyal’s value while keeping state institutions intact. However, this relative success is no longer sustainable as the ongoing conflict makes it even more difficult for the government to fulfill its debt obligations and the CBY’s foreign currency reserves are plummeting (they now stand at less than $2.1 billion, or enough to cover only two month's worth of imports). Once these reserves are exhausted, the riyal’s value will start to dip, gravely impacting the country’s entire economy and the people’s well-being.
"Many of the weaknesses in Yemen's public finances are structural and predate the current conflict. Government revenues have for some time been undiversified and overly dependant on oil exports, while expenditures have been inflated by endemic corruption and sprawling patronage networks. The current civil war – which effectively began in September 2014 and escalated when the Saudi-led military intervention began in March 2015 – has dramatically intensified these weaknesses and their consequences."
In light of these threats, Rageh suggests a number of steps to be taken to preserve the riyal and the minimum operation of state institutions. In the absence of a cessation of hostilities, which would be the largest single measure to stabilize Yemen, foreign backers of the country’s warring parties should “pressure their local allies to stop plundering state institutions and appropriating state revenue streams.” Houthis must stop selling fuel import licenses and help to reinstate the Yemen Petroleum Company as the primary handler of commercial fuel. All parties must end their respective blockades while not interfering with or targeting commercial networks across the country. Parties must also allow Yemen’s commercial banks to transfer Saudi riyals out of the country in exchange for US dollars. If these actions are taken, among others, Yemen will have a better chance of preserving the state institutions that are essential to its economy and its citizens.
February 28-March 6: Attacks in Aden challenge claims of government control
February 28Militiamen reportedly clashed with soldiers guarding the presidential palace in Aden on Sunday. A local official said the attackers, affiliated with the Southern Movement, wanted to speak with officials inside the palace regarding compensation for guards killed in the previous month’s attack at the palace. The gun fight erupted when the guards refused their entry.
Ban Ki-moon called on Sunday for a prompt and impartial investigation into Saturday’s Saudi-led airstrike on a market in Nihm that killed at least 32 civilians--among the highest from a single bombing in recent months.
February 29 A comprehensive embargo on arms transfers that could be used by any of the warring parties in Yemen must be immediately imposed by all states, said Amnesty international on Monday, adding that "the world has not only turned its back on the people of Yemen; many states have actually contributed to their suffering, supplying the weapons and bombs that have been used to unlawfully kill and injure civilians and destroy homes and infrastructure."
March 1 A letter by Osama bin Laden denouncing Saleh’s government and his "collusion" with the US was published(PDF) on Tuesday by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. In his letters, bin Laden refers to the Houthis as “the real danger to the area” and criticizes Saleh for “compliance with [America’s] request to stop the war against the Huthi...and to concentrate efforts on targeting the free Mujahidin.”
March 2 Saudi newspaper Okaz published an interview with Hadi on Wednesday in which he discusses his decision to appoint Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar and the role of Western countries in Yemen’s conflict. Hadi also claims that his forces now control 85% of Yemen. He mentioned in the interview that Saudi’s King Salman has agreed to let Yemen join the GCC, “but only without Saleh and the Houthis.” He went on to cite four different occasions when Saleh tried to assassinate him.
Meanwhile, Doctors Without Borders (MSF) has said that its staffers are scared to continue working in one of its facilities in Sa'dah after two airstrikes were carried out nearby by the Saudi-led coalition. However, MSF confirmed on their Facebook page the next day that they are still operating at every facility in Yemen, including in Sa'dah.
March 3 Russian ambassador Vitaly Churkin warned on Thursday that the war in Yemen could be “a very long conflict which will have even more dramatic results” due to the insistence of Hadi’s government on conditions for a ceasefire. Churkin said that the Saudi-backed resolution adopted last year, which demands that Houthi forces withdraw from all seized territory "is being used essentially to continue the military campaign."
UN aid chief Stephen O'Brien warned countries on Thursday to not take any steps that could reverse the recent increase in emergency aid provided to Yemen. "In recent months, there has been a significant increase of fuel and other life-saving imports through Yemeni ports, and it is critical that every effort be made by all member states concerned to encourage, and not hinder, that trend," O'Brien told the UN Security Council.
March 4 Gunmen stormed a retirement home on Friday in Aden’s Shaykh Othman district, killing 16, including four nuns. Pope Francis and Yemen’s UN mission condemned the attack, calling it “a cruel and heartless act.” The UN mission suggested that IS militants were responsible, but no one has yet claimed responsibility, although al-Qaeda denies any involvement.
It was reported on Friday that banks have cut credit lines for traders shipping food to Yemen. The shipments, sometimes worth millions of dollars, are now considered too risky for many lenders.
A Friday drone strike on a car in Shabwah province killed four suspected al-Qaeda militants on Friday. Al-Qaeda brochures were reportedly scattered across the road after the car burst into flames.
Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the UN Abdallah al-Mouallimi said on Friday that he is concerned about the worsening humanitarian situation in Yemen but doesn’t see the need for a Security Council resolution addressing it. The ambassador claimed that the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs told his office that it doesn’t believe the council’s intervention is needed, but the OCHA said they could not comment on that. “There are reports here and there about what the Security Council is up to,” al-Mouallimi said. “We continue to believe that a political solution is the only way to resolve the Yemeni crisis.”
March 5 Gunmen in Aden’s al-Mansourah district opened fire on a vehicle on Saturday, killing police Colonel Salem al-Milqat and his aide.
March 6 Former US ambassador to Yemen Stephen Seche published an op-ed in the Boston Globe on Sunday explaining how the US-supported Saudi war in Yemen is in fact empowering the extremist Islamist groups that the US wants to defeat, especially IS. Seche argues that the ongoing war will have a profound impact on regional economy and global security.
Ali Mohsen "on horseback" - Khoury
Writing for the Atlantic Council, Nabeel Khoury examines President Hadi’s recent decision to name General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar as the deputy commander of Yemen’s armed forces. While this appointment is meant to be a strategic move in the battle to retake Sanʻa, Hadi’s delegation of power to Saleh’s former strong man could prove both ineffective and dangerous to Hadi’s future presidency. The hope is that Ali Mohsen will help to forge a stronger bond with tribal and southern anti-Houthi forces ahead of the critical battle to retake Sanʻa. The general, much like his former boss Saleh, once possessed all the necessary tools for political influence: corruption, smuggling networks, tribal alliances, and a loyal armed forces. Times have changed, however, and many tribes and factions across Yemen view Ali Mohsen as untrustworthy due to his questionable relations with Salafists and extremists. The ties that once boosted the general’s political stature in Yemen may now hinder his rise to power. Before the revolution, Ali Mohsen was the architect of the Saleh regime’s six-year war against the Houthis, and was seen as an agent of the forces promoting Wahhabism in northern Yemen. The resulting distrust would make post-war reconciliation an unlikely prospect.
“With his renowned Salafi leanings and attachment to a more radical Islamic political agenda than Saleh ever had, Ali Mohsen at the helm would signal a return to a past that the country’s secular youth have clearly rejected.”
The decision to appoint the general could backfire if and when Hadi’s forces, headed by Ali Mohsen, reclaim San’a. Hadi risks being overtaken by Ali Mohsen, who was once viewed as a leading contender to replace Saleh as president. But following the revolution, Ali Mohsen sided with the opposition, which failed to secure political or military power during the transitional period.
Hadi’s forces now face an uphill battle for Taʻiz and Sanʻa. The majority of Yemen’s armed forces belong to Saleh and the Houthis, and the remainder may not be sufficient to reclaim the two most important cities. Add to this the ill-advised nomination of Ali Mohsen and the result is an unlikely peace or political resolution.
Is the Houthi-Saleh Alliance Cracking? - Schwedler
A recent piece by Jillian Schwedler for the Atlantic Council explains the basis for the Houthi-Saleh alliance and its impending collapse. This marriage of convenience between historically opposed parties is not likely to outlast the ongoing war, and will possibly fall apart even earlier. A Houthi-led march in Sanʻa, which commemorated the five-year anniversary of the revolution that ended in Saleh’s forced resignation, may be the most recent indication of the alliance’s disintegration. For over a decade, and up until the 2012-14 transition period, Saleh and the Houthis butted heads. Though at first Saleh supported the Zaydi revivalist movement--seeing it as a useful counterbalance to Saudi influence in the far north, he turned on the Houthis in the early 2000s, wary of Husayn al-Houthi’s rapidly-growing power. Husayn, who was succeeded by his younger brother Abd al-Malik after his death, assembled militias in 2004 to defend the movement against the regime’s crackdown. The conflict between the Houthis and Saleh continued for years; their eventual alliance was rooted not in mutual interests but in mutual opposition to Hadi’s monopolization of the transition process.
“Between the Houthis and Saleh, there is more than enough hubris to go around. Each seems convinced it can dispense the other with ease once the Saudi-led campaign ends. But with no signs of that happening soon, will the coalition endure?”
Saleh benefits from the Houthis’ experienced militias, strong alliances with northern tribes, and their followers, who rally to their message of Zaydi (and, more generally, Yemeni) empowerment. The Houthis, meanwhile, face strong opposition and cannot survive without Saleh’s formally-trained national army and support from his patronage networks.
There is no end in sight for the ongoing conflict in Yemen, and this is putting a strain on the already uncomfortable alliance. Both parties are likely looking for ways to split from each other as soon as the dust settles. This may be more easily achieved by the Houthis. They are currently in mid-level negotiations with the Saudis, who are reportedly insistent that Saleh not be a part of Yemen’s future.
February 21-27: airstrikes kill dozens of civilians, EP recommends arms embargo on KSA
Sunday February 21This week began, and ended, with airstrikes resulting in over 30 deaths each and dozens of injuries. The first took place in Sa’dah on Sunday, with Sputnik news reporting that a coalition assault killed 31, including 10 women and 12 children. Al-Arabiya also reported this airstrike, but claimed that those killed were members of the Houthi militia.
Monday February 22 On Monday, President Hadi appointed General Ali Mohsin al-Ahmar, former commander of the First Armored Division, as deputy supreme commander of Yemen’s armed forces. Al-Ahmar previously served as Hadi’s advisor for military affairs. Military sources say Hadi's decision is an attempt to win the confidence of tribal leaders and army commanders in the San’a governorate, where al-Ahmar is an influential figure. However, the Houthis defeated al-Ahmar’s forces in a series of battles in 2013-2014 with the help of those local tribes.
A three-day conference on Yemen’s humanitarian crisis started on Monday in Doha. The conference organizers estimated that $2.5 billion is needed for urgent relief in Yemen. By Wednesday, the Qatar Charity Society and the Kuwait-based International Islamic Charitable Organisation each pledged $100 million while the Qatari Red Crescent pledged $10 million. Unfortunately, these funds will likely be distributed without coordination with the UN and may take the form of military aid.
Meanwhile, photo evidence surfaced showing that Houthi forces have seized a number of Canadian-made weapons that were originally exported to Saudi Arabia. More than $28 million worth of Canadian-made guns have been shipped in the past decade to Saudi Arabia, Canada’s second largest weapons customer after the U.S.
A BBC Arabic-language documentary by Safa al-Ahmad on living conditions in Ta’iz was released on Monday. The documentary contains footage and commentary indicating that coalition and Southern Resistance troops are fighting alongside al-Qaeda militants against Houthi forces near the city.
Tuesday February 23 Human Rights Watch published a letter on Tuesday reiterating calls for investigations into serious violations of international humanitarian and human rights law committed by all parties to the conflict in Yemen.
Wednesday February 24 The UAE has reportedly pulled its troops out of the port city of Aden on Wednesday, according to an anonymous official. The Emirates are still believed to have troops in other parts of the country. Hadi government officials have denied these reports.
Thursday February 25 The European Parliament voted on Thursday to approve a resolution recommending an arms embargo on Saudi Arabia over the coalition's indiscriminate bombing of Yemeni civilians. Before the motion was passed, Saudi Arabia launched an intense lobbying campaign to convince members of the European Parliament to reject the resolution. The resolution is not binding; EU member states can still legally make weapons deals with the Kingdom.
Saturday February 27 Saturday’s coalition airstrike on a market in Nihm, near San'a, killed at least 30 people and injured dozens more, most of them civilians. Saudi officials later claimed that these reports were fabricated by the Houthis.
Recent Developments in Yemen’s Armed Conflict - February 22, 2016
This is the first in a new series of monthly or semi-monthly reports on the conflict, with special attention to the humanitarian catastrophe in Yemen and the role of the United States in the war and the peace process. This report summarizes important recent developments regarding Yemen’s armed conflict and the worsening humanitarian crisis in the country. The Yemen Peace Project provides periodic reports to policymakers and nongovernmental actors, intended to inform discussions of US policies toward Yemen and America’s role in the conflict. The body of this report includes links to primary sources referenced.
Summary of issues covered:
- In early February, Saudi Arabia sent official diplomatic messages warning UN staff and humanitarian agencies to leave areas under Houthi control, indicating that the Saudi-led coalition would not guarantee their safety from airstrikes. The Saudi warning has negatively impacted aid operations.
- Both the Saudi-led coalition and the Houthi-Saleh alliance are imposing blockades on food and other necessities in parts of the country. International law and US military regulations prohibit the use of starvation of civilians as a military tactic.
- The World Food Program was recently been able to deliver medical supplies to the city of Taʻiz for the first time in months. The city, which remains under siege by Houthi-Saleh forces, is approaching a famine-level food emergency.
- The Saudi-led coalition has used US-made cluster bombs in heavily populated areas, despite US prohibitions on such use. The ordnance used also fails to meet US standards for reliability.
- Houthi-Saleh forces are conducting a massive crackdown on peaceful opposition activists, politicians, and journalists. As many as 800 people have been forcibly disappeared by Houthi authorities in and around Sanʻa, according to local sources.
- UN Special Envoy for Yemen Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed told the UNSC that parties to the conflict had not yet been able to agree on terms for new peace talks.
- The UN Special Advisors on the Prevention of Genocide and the Responsibility to Protect reported that all sides in the conflict have committed serious violations of international humanitarian law.
- According to UNICEF, well over a million children have been displaced from their homes by the war. At least 1.3 million children under the age of five face severe malnutrition, and over two million have been prevented from attending school.
Read the full report below, or download a PDF version here.
Belligerents’ interference with humanitarian assistance
On February 11, news sources reported that the Saudi mission in Geneva had informed the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) via note verbal to notify all international organizations working in Yemen to relocate outside “…regions where the Houthi militias and the groups belonging to them are activating.” A similar letter was sent on the same day by the Saudi Embassy in London to international aid organizations and their employees. Apart from the Southern city of Aden, the Houthi/Saleh forces control areas where the majority of Yemen’s civilian population lives, including Sanʻa, where most aid and UN operations are headquartered.
Briefing the Security Council on February 16, Under Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs Stephen O’Brien reported the Saudi notification, noting that it had already impacted the humanitarian community’s work on important missions. O’Brien also reported other Saudi interference with humanitarian activities, including diversion of a World Food Program chartered vessel en route to deliver food aid to an approved port in Yemen to the Saudi Arabian port of Jizan.
O’Brien reminded parties to the armed conflict of their duty in the conduct of military operations to protect all civilian persons and objects, including humanitarian and healthcare workers and facilities. He stated that UN agencies and their partners will continue to deliver impartial and neutral assistance across Yemen according to need.
While Saudi Arabia and its allies continue to hinder the flow of aid and commercial shipments into Yemen, forces aligned with the Houthi movement and former president Ali Abdullah Saleh are also imposing blockades inside the country, most notably in and around Yemen’s second-largest city, Taʻiz. The World Food Program (WFP) reports that Taʻiz is suffering a severe food emergency, only one step above the UN’s “famine” classification. WFP was able to deliver food inside the most hard-hit area of the besieged city in mid- February. On February 10, following months of a siege on Taʻiz by Houthi-Saleh forces, The World Health Organization (WHO) was allowed to deliver medical supplies to three hospitals in Taʻiz. Three districts of the city remain inaccessible to medical assistance efforts and throughout the city patients are suffering from both chronic diseases and emergency injuries that cannot be addressed due to lack of basic medical supplies. In recent weeks the UN has made repeated calls to allow humanitarian access to besieged areas throughout the country.
The Director of Operations at the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) reported on 11 February on his visit to Yemen: “Their quest for survival, food, water and shelter is a daily struggle amidst continuous air strikes and ground fighting. The restrictions on the movement of fuel, food and medicine into and around the country are making the crisis even worse.” In Yemen the destruction of civilian infrastructure is a daily occurrence. More than 2.7 million people have had to flee their homes; more than 6,000 have been killed. Over 30,000, including women and children have been injured, while health facilities have suffered more than 100 attacks since March 2015.
Ten of Yemen’s 22 governorates, some 7.6 million people, are currently at the WFP’s “severe food emergency” level. The YPP notes that the use of starvation and blockade of food supplies to a civilian population as a military tactic is widely considered to be a war crime. The new Department of Defense Law of War Manual affirms that the starvation of civilians as a method of conflict is prohibited, regardless of conflict classification.
Belligerents’ use of prohibited arms and tactics
In a detailed report supported by on the ground investigations, issued in mid-February, Human Rights Watch reported the Saudi-led coalition’s use of US-provided cluster munitions in Sanʻa and other heavily populated areas of Yemen, causing numerous civilian casualties. Similar evidence was provided by Amnesty International in a January report. While the United States and Saudi Arabia are not parties to the international ban on cluster munitions, US law does prohibit the use of such weapons in areas with civilian populations. US law also bans the export of cluster munitions with a failure rate higher than one percent. Evidence gathered by HRW proves that the US-made weapons used by the coalition have a failure rate that far exceeds that standard. Both the coalition’s use of these weapons and the US government’s provision of the munitions violate international and US law.
Human Rights Watch has documented a massive crackdown by Houthi-Saleh forces on peaceful opposition activists, politicians, and journalists. As many as 800 people have been forcibly disappeared by Houthi authorities in and around Sanʻa, according to local sources. Based on interviews with witnesses and family members, the report claims that Houthi authorities are depriving many detainees of food and water, preventing them from contacting anyone on the outside, and holding them in otherwise illegal and abusive conditions. One journalism student, for example, who has been imprisoned for more than four months, was “first held for three days without food or being allowed to use the bathroom.” A professor at San‘a University’s medical school “was being held in a three-by-three meter cell with 14 other men and was only allowed to use the bathroom once a day.”
United Nations officials brief the Security Council
Special Envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed reported to a February 17 session of the Council that “The parties to the conflict are divided over whether a new round of talks should be convened with or without a new cessation of hostilities.” He noted that the previous round of talks in December had included creation of a De-Escalation and Coordination Committee. This committee has had some successes; however, the security situation in Yemen has deteriorated dramatically in the past two months. This has been accompanied by a continued deterioration in living conditions for civilians amounting to what under Secretary General Stephen O’Brien told the Council was a “humanitarian catastrophe”.
The chairman of the Sanctions Committee’s Panel of Experts also briefed the Council (covered on video of counsel session) on the dire humanitarian situation and called on all parties to respond to the Panel’s requests for information and to cooperate with the Panel’s members during their visits to Yemen. In January a widely leaked report by the Panel stated that coalition air strikes had targeted civilians in a “widespread and systematic” matter. It also confirmed that civilians were being deliberately starved as a war tactic.
In a February 16 joint statement, the Secretary General’s Special Advisor on the Responsibility to Protect and the SG’s Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide reported that serious abuses and violations of international law by all sides in the Yemen conflict have been extensively documented, including by the United Nations. “Evidence gathered suggests that some of these violations may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity.” The statement concluded, “We must, collectively, make the protection of the civilian populations of Yemen our primary consideration if we are to avoid a catastrophe in this region.”
UNICEF reported in January that the deadly combination of military attacks, disease and deprivation has had a particularly serious impact on children. Children make up at least half of the 2.7 million Yemenis displaced from their homes, while 1.3 million children under five face acute malnutrition, and at least 2 million cannot go to school.
Other recent reports on Yemen’s conflict
This section summarizes only reports that set out a broad, comprehensive review of the Yemen conflict. There are many more specialized reports, including some referenced above, that provide coverage of selected incidents and issues. Information about current developments is provided on a daily and hourly basis on the YPP’s blog, Facebook page, and Twitter feed.
- The Yemen Peace Project, United States’ Policy and Yemen’s Armed Conflict, September 2015. This report, prepared in cooperation with Sanʻa Center for Strategic Studies and Resonate Yemen, reviews the origins of the internal conflict, its transformation in 2014-15 into a countrywide, internationalized armed conflict, devastating the economy and political structure of the State and resulting in a humanitarian catastrophe. The report focuses upon US policy and engagement, military and diplomatic. It concludes by recognizing the crucial role of the US in bringing Yemen’s warring parties to the table to secure an end to the present hostilities. Just as important, the report notes, will be the US role in a postwar Yemen. US policymakers should begin working now to develop a just and constructive US policy, in line with America’s values and its obligations under international law, which recognizes the civil and human rights of the Yemeni people. Several specifics steps to this end are set out.
- UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Humanitarian Needs Overview, November 2015. This report is a very comprehensive, annual overview prepared by OCHA.
- International Crisis Group, Yemen: Is Peace Possible? February 2016. This report deals extensively with the principal belligerents, the regional context, and the UN – led negotiations. Various recommendations are provided including steps that could improve chances for a cease fire and durable political settlement.
About the Yemen Peace Project
The Yemen Peace Project (YPP) works to transform the relationship between the United States and Yemen by promoting understanding between Americans and Yemenis and advocating for a peaceful, constructive foreign policy.
To this end, the YPP seeks to provide accurate and in-depth information about Yemen’s political, social, and cultural issues; to facilitate communication between Yemenis and non-Yemenis; to create new opportunities for Yemenis to make their voices heard.
February 14-20: new UN appeal; prominent Houthi leaders reportedly killed
Sunday February 14thA Saudi-led coalition air strike on a sewing workshop in San’a on Sunday killed at least two people, including a 14-year-old boy, and wounded 15, according to the shop’s owner. Houthi forces reported a death toll of 11 from the strike.
Human Rights Watch released a report on Sunday detailing the Saudi-led coalition’s use of internationally banned cluster munitions in Yemen. The munitions were manufactured in the United States and recently transferred to Saudi Arabia despite evidence that they do not meet US standards for weapons exports and have resulted in a number of civilian casualties.
Monday February 15th Mareb Press reported that the Houthi government has blocked access to most news and social media websites in Yemen, with Saba News being one of the few accessible sites. This comes as part of a larger crackdown by the Houthis on perceived opposition outlets since the rebel group seized control of San’a a year ago.
The World Food Programme announced on Monday that it managed to deliver much-needed food for 18,000 people in the Al-Qahirah area of Ta’iz on Saturday. The UN warned that residents of Ta’iz, one of ten Yemeni governorates facing an emergency-level food shortage, are in desperate need of external assistance.
Al Arabiya news reported that 59 Houthi fighters have been killed in recent Saudi-led airstrikes and clashes in Ta’iz, Marib, and eastern San’a. Those killed are said to include prominent Houthi leaders Yahya Al-Mutawakkil Taha and Yahya Zafran.
Tuesday February 16th The World Food Programme (WFP) announced on Tuesday that the humanitarian IT equipment that Saudi Arabia stopped from entering Yemen on one of its chartered ships last week, fearing it was meant for the Houthi militia, belonged to the UN. The organization said it was carrying a cargo of humanitarian relief supplies bound for the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeida, but was diverted by the coalition to the Saudi port of Jizan on February 11th.
Governor of Aden Aidarus al-Zubaidi and security director Shalal Ali Shayyeh escaped an assassination attempt when gunmen opened fire on their convoy in Aden on Tuesday, a security official said. Three of the gunmen were killed in an exchange of fire.
Armed men in Ta’iz fatally shot journalist Ahmed al-Shaibani on Tuesday. Al-Shaibani, who worked for the independent Yaman News website and state-run Yemen TV, was killed while reporting on fighting in Ta’iz by Houthi gunmen.
Wednesday February 17th In response to Saudi Arabia advising aid organizations to leave Houthi-controlled areas, Human Rights Watch released a statement saying that the warnings do not absolve the Saudi-led coalition from the legal obligation to protect humanitarian personnel and facilities from attack.
UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Stephen O’Brien announced that the Yemen Humanitarian Response Plan will be launched on Thursday to raise some $1.8 billion required to save millions of Yemenis from humanitarian catastrophe.
A suicide bomber killed at least 10 recruits at an army camp run by President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi's government in Buraiqah, Aden on Wednesday, medical sources and an official said. Al Arabiya reports that IS claimed responsibility for the attack in a statement circulated on Twitter.
A US federal judge ruled on Wednesday that the State Department wrongfully seized the passport of Mosed Shaye Omar, a naturalized US citizen, when he went to Yemen in 2013 to help his daughter apply for a US passport. The 64-year-old was accused of immigration fraud at the US embassy in San’a where he was detained, interrogated, deprived of food and water for a day, and coerced into signing a false confession. Shaye Omar is one of a number of Yemeni-Americans who have been subjected to similar treatment.
Thursday February 18th Amnesty says that financial figures from British-based defence contractor BAE reveal that the company’s net gain last year of close to £1 billion is due to sales made to the Royal Saudi Air Force, which has been bombing civilian targets in Yemen in violation of international humanitarian law.
Saturday February 20th Al Qaeda militants took control of the southern town of Ahwar on Saturday after clashing with Popular Resistance forces, killing three of them. The group controls several other towns in Abyan and Shabwah. However, local sources reported that, after taking control of government buildings in Ahwar, AQAP’s forces were confronted by armed tribesmen. AQAP reportedly pulled out of the town in exchange for promise of safe passage. A senior commander of the Southern Resistance, Shaykh Mazen al-Aqrabi was killed in Aden along with his bodyguard after two gunmen, presumably belonging to al Qaeda, opened fire on them.
Between Hirak, Hadi, and foreign forces, uncertainty reigns in Aden
The following piece was sent to us by a frequent guest blogger, who writes anonymously for professional reasons and safety concerns. The perspective of the author does not necessarily represent the positions of the YPP. The YPP's Hannah Porter assisted with editing and translation. Yemen’s internationally-recognized government and its allies—including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, local Yemeni salafi groups, and factions of al-Hirak (the Southern independence movement)—are trying to make real progress on the ground in the areas of southern Yemen they have retaken, although this appears to be an impossible task given the complex challenges facing them.
Granting the management and security of Yemen’s temporary capital Aden to the armed faction of al-Hirak led by Aydroos al-Zabidi (who was previously the chairperson of the Hatem movement) was an extremely clever move, one that may have been a result of President Hadi’s foresight into to Aden’s future. Hirak’s field leaders are experiencing a phase of infighting and disorder. After some of the leaders accepted administrative positions in the Hadi-Bahah government, they proved themselves unable to provide solutions to the people who supported them and listened to their speeches about reestablishing the southern nation.
This may be understandable, as the Hirak field leaders have nothing in the way of experience in governance or societal management, and the treasury of Yemen’s government is practically empty. The funding that the government talks about consists of bonds given to them by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other Gulf countries. It is true that a small amount of the money has been received, but the larger monetary influx comes as part of the war effort, which drains everything and is itself one of the biggest challenges to normalizing life in Aden.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have set their focus on security challenges in reclaimed areas, as well as promoting military operations against Ansar Allah (Houthi) and pro-Saleh forces. This means that development and normalizing life in the capital of Aden is a matter left to international and Gulf aid organizations, and to the Hirak leadership, which presides over Aden.
International and Gulf aid organizations active in liberated areas have discussed the difficulty of development occurring while security challenges disrupt normal life in Aden. Not only have assassinations increased since Hirak took charge of Aden’s security and administration (with Aden’s governor being subject to three assassination attempts since taking office) but Islamic State affiliates in Yemen have unleashed a tsunami of merciless attacks.
The utter incompetence that pervades Yemen’s government is one of its main challenges. The president and his vice president/prime minister cannot travel through Aden by private cars or even in convoys, but instead resort to helicopters to transport them to their destinations.
Even the services provided to citizens by the Southern Resistance in reclaimed areas are in decline after an initial period of relative stability. Sewage and garbage have begun to fill the streets of Shaykh Othman, al-Mansurah, and Dar Saʻad. Phone and Internet service is still weak and electric outages now last eight hours every day. Water threatens to be cut off due to the administration’s inability to pay their employees’ wages and petrol will sometimes be available for two weeks and then disappear for the next two weeks.
All the above-mentioned challenges may seem normal for areas recovering from armed conflict and still belonging to a country at war. However, these challenges can be used and manipulated as tools to remove an opposing power from the political scene. The search for improvement in current times is a difficult matter and there is nothing the people can do but be patient and hopeful.
تحاول الحكومة المعترف بها من قبل الأمم المتحدة ومن خلفها السعودية و الإمارات العربية المتحدة بالإضافة الى بعض قادة الحراك الجنوبي وايضاً سلفيي اليمن إنجاز تقدم حقيقي على الارض في المحافظات المسيطر عليها، إلا ان ذلك يبدو كمهمة مستحيلة امام التحديات المعقدة التي تواجههم.
إن إسناد ملف إدارة وأمن العاصمة المؤقته لليمن "عدن" لفصيل الحراك الجنوبي المسلح بقيادة "عيدروس الزبيدي" الذي كان فيما سبق يرأس حركة حتم "حركة تقرير المصير"، امر بالغ في الذكاء ! بالإمكان القول ان الرئيس هادي استخدمها وهو يتطلع الى مرحلة ما بعد ما تعيشه عدن حالياً.
إن القيادات الميدانية للحراك الجنوبي تعيش مرحلة من الإصطدام البيني و التوهان، فبعد ان قبل بعض قيادة الحراك الجنوبي بمناصب ادارية في السلطة الحالية للحكومة اليمنية قدمهم كعاجزين عن تقديم اي حلول للجماهير التي لطالما ايدتهم و انصتت الى حديثهم عن إستعادة الدولة الجنوبية.
وفي الحقيقية يمكن تفهم ذلك، فهؤلاء القادة الميدانيين لديهم لاشيء فيما يتعلق بالحوكمة وإدارة المجتمعات، بالإضافة الى ان الخزنة المالية للحكومة المعترف بها تقريباً لا شيء ! فالتمويلات التي تتحدث عنها الحكومة المعترف بها هي تعهدات قدمتها العربية السعودية و دولة الامارات العربية المتحدة وبعض الدول الخليجية، صحيح ان القليل جداً وصل الا ان التدفق المالي الاكبر يأتي للمجهود الحربي الذي يستنزف كل شيء وهو بذاته اكبر التحديات في تطبيع الحياة بعدن.
إن السعودية و الإمارات العربية المتحدة يضعون نصب اعينهم مسئلة التحدي الأمني في المناطق المسيطر عليها و تعزيز العمليات العسكرية ضد قوات انصار الله/صالح. وذلك يعني ان التنمية وتطبيع الحياة في العاصمة عدن ملف ترك لبعض المنظمات الدولية والخليجية بالإضافة الى قيادة الحراك الجنوبي المسلح التي اصبح على رأس السلطة في عدن.
والحقيقة التي تتحدث عنها المنظمات الدولية والخليجية العاملة في المناطق المحررة هي ان لا يمكن للتنمية ان تتقدم والتحديات الامنية تعصف بتطبيع الحياة في عدن، فعمليات الاغتيالات هي في إزدياد منذ تولي الحراك المسلح إدارة وامن عدن، بل وان الدولة الإسلامية في اليمن اطلقت تسونامي يضرب الجميع دون رحمة. فمحافظ عدن الحالي تعرض لـ 3 محاولات اغتيال منذ تولية حكم عدن !
العجز التام الذي يطبق على الحكومة اليمنية المعترف بها هو ايضاً احد التحديات، فكلاً من رئيس الجمهورية و ونأئب الرئيس رئيس الوزراء لايمكنهما التجوال في عدن بسيارتهم الخاصة او حتى بموكب ! عوضاً عن ذلك هم يتنقلون بطائرات هيلوكبتر للوصول الى بعض الاماكن !
حتى الخدمات المقدمة للمواطنين في المناطق المسيطر عليها من قبل المقاومة الجنوبية هي في تدهور بعد ان شهدت بعضها نوع من الاستقرار النسبي، فالمجاري والقمامة اصبح تملئ بعض المديريات كالشيخ عثمان والمنصورة ودار سعد. كما ان خدمة الإتصالات ما تزال رديئة كما الانترنت. الكهرباء التي اصبحت تنقطع لحوالي 8 ساعات يومياً والمياة التي اصبحت مهددة بالتوقف لعدم قدرة المؤسسة عن دفع رواتب العاملين. ايضاً البترول الذي يظهر لمدة اسبوعين ويختفي مرة اخرى لمدة اسبوعين !
إن هذه التحديات قد تبدو طبيعية لمناطق خرجت من النزاعات المسلحة وما تزال تعيش حالة حرب مستمرة في البلد الذي تنتمي له. وهي ايضاً ادوات تمسك بها القوة المتصارعة وتلعب بها بذكاء من اجل ازاحة اطراف من المشهد السياسي. إن البحث عن تحسن في الوقت الحالي امر صعب جداً وليس امام الناس إلا الصبر و الأمل.
Illegal US cluster bombs are killing civilians - HRW
Human Rights Watch has documented a number of incidents of Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen using internationally banned cluster munitions supplied by the United States, despite US prohibitions on using such weapons against civilian targets. The use of these munitions, which were recently transferred to coalition forces, is contrary to US export requirements. The weapons also appear to be failing to meet the reliability standard required by US regulations. “Saudi Arabia and its coalition partners, as well as their US supplier, are blatantly disregarding the global standard that says cluster munitions should never be used under any circumstances,” said Steve Goose, arms director at Human Rights Watch and chair of the international Cluster Munition Coalition. The use of these munitions have led to a number of civilian casualties in residential areas of Sa’dah, San’a, ‘Amran, and al-Hudaydah.
“Something hit the wall and broke through it. I immediately hit the floor. This strange object landed about five meters from me. It looked like a small silver model of a rocket. I was very afraid, I tried to crawl away and escape because I knew it could explode at any moment. It looked very scary. But as I moved, it moved with me...in slow motion it seemed. This went on for about a minute and then it exploded.”
The most recently documented incident took place on December 12, 2015 in al-Hudaydah. The cluster bombs, which were shown to have been manufactured in Wilmington, Massachusetts, injured a woman and two children in their homes.
The 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions prohibits the use, production, transfer, and stockpiling of these munitions due to their tendency to leave behind large numbers of unexploded bomblets, which can pose a serious danger to civilians years--and even decades--after the end of a conflict.
Yemen, the US, and Saudi Arabia are not party to this convention. However, the use of these munitions still violates the US export law that prohibits the recipients of cluster munitions from using them in populated areas, which the Saudi-led coalition is clearly doing, and only allows the transfer of cluster munitions with a failure rate of less than 1 percent. It appears that the “Sensor Fuzed Weapons” being used in Yemen are not functioning in ways that meet this reliability standard.
In July, US Representative Jim McGovern raised concern about the use of cluster munitions, stating: “If we have evidence that countries are not complying with US law that ought to be enough to say we sell these weapons to them no more. Period. End of story.” McGovern and Human Rights Watch call for the US to join the Convention on Cluster Munitions and for the Saudi-led coalition to immediately stop using them.
Experts reflect on connections between 2011 revolution & today's war - AJE
A recent episode of Al Jazeera’s Inside Story featured human rights activist Baraa Shiban, researcher Adam Baron, and civil society activist Mohammad Al Shami, discussing the country’s failed revolution, ongoing war, and humanitarian crisis. The consensus among the three experts was that the failed transition following the 2011 revolution, which allowed former president Ali Abdullah Saleh to stay in the country, is largely to blame for the current situation in Yemen. According to Shiban, there was an underestimation in 2011 of the counter revolution and how willing Saleh was to push the country into all-out civil war. It was already clear in 2011 that Saleh would try to spoil the transition, and the GCC agreement simply delayed the conflict that Yemen is now witnessing, according to Shiban. Baron agrees that the transitional period only managed to postpone further bloodshed. “The transitional authority was incompetent and split between parties that had been at war for a year.”
The alliance forged between Saleh and the Houthis is one of convenience and survival, according to Al Shami, and the threat now posed by the Houthis to Saudi Arabia exacerbated the already deeply complex situation in Yemen as it pushed the Saudis to intervene in 2015. Baron states that the conflict in Yemen is not a proxy war as much as it is a series of inconnecting political battles. At its essence, he argues, it is locally rooted.
The incessant fighting in Yemen has taken a toll on all citizens, but Al Shami says that the younger generation is most profoundly affected as many young people are participating in the war, mostly as a way to earn money or privilege from various factions.
In order to end this war and prevent future conflicts, Shiban says that Saleh must be removed from Yemen or face sanctions. Baron notes that “unless there’s a genuine shift in how politics is done in Yemen, we’ll just see conflicts repeating in some other form.”
View the episode here (not available in all countries).
February 7-13: AQAP infighting kills 7; Saudi Arabia warns aid workers
February 8At least seven members of Al-Qaeda were killed in Zinjibar on Monday after clashes broke out between two factions of the militant organization. The infighting escalated due to a disagreement over the appointment of a new regional commander after Jalal Baleedi was killed the previous week in a US drone strike.
In an attempt to gain support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen, spokesman for the coalition Brig. Gen. Ahmad Asiri delivered a briefing over Skype on Monday to a small audience at the Center for a New American Security in D.C. Playing to Washington’s fixation on counter-terrorism, Asiri argued that the Houthis and Saleh are inseparable from Al-Qaeda, claiming that the Saudis are weakening AQAP by weakening the Houthis.
Meanwhile, following Monday’s meeting with Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir, John Kerry made cautious remarks about ending the war in Yemen: "Over the course of the next week it may become possible to try to engage in some productive conversations about how to bring that conflict to a close."
Unicef released a report on Monday estimating that a third of combatants in Yemen are children. Both the Houthis and pro-Hadi forces have recruited children as young as 14 to fight on the frontlines despite pledges to end the practice. The widespread destruction of schools and infrastructure in the Saudi-led bombardment of Yemen leads to more children picking up guns and fighting, in exchange for $4-8 a day.
February 9 Vice President of Hadi’s government-in-exile Khaled Bahah said on Tuesday at the World Government Summit in Dubai that his allies are now close enough to soon recapture both San’a and Ta’iz from Houthi forces, claiming that they are now “in control of more than 80 percent of the Yemeni territories.”
February 10 Five members of the same family, including three children, were killed in San’a on Wednesday when a coalition airstrike hit their home. The dead father was identified by neighbors as Mounir Al-Hakimi, a program director at the Yemen Today television channel.
Unicef reports that ”more than a million children under five face the risk of acute malnutrition and acute respiratory tract infections.” The organization says that 192 centers for the treatment of malnutrition have stopped operating due to a lack of fuel, the displacement of staff, or because the centers and hospitals have been hit by airstrikes.
Thankfully, the WHO said on Wednesday that it was able to deliver 20 tons of medical supplies, including trauma kits and much-needed oxygen tanks, to Ta’iz on January 31 for the first time in eight weeks.
February 11 On the anniversary of the revolution, Yemenis took to Twitter to post memories of the uprising. Tawakkol Karman gave a televised address the same day, saying the 2011 revolution was inevitable and that the “February generation” will overthrow the "fascist" (Houthi) takeover. Karman added that the revolution is still ongoing.
From the Houthi side, Al-Masirah network reported that thousands of Yemenis of all ages and backgrounds gathered in front of San'a University in Change Square to mark the five-year anniversary. The slogan of the demonstrations was reportedly, "Our revolution continues against the American invasion."
Also on Thursday, Yemeni security officials said a senior military commander survived an assassination attempt in Aden. Three of his guards were killed when their convoy was ambushed and shot at.
February 12 Saudi Arabia warned aid workers on Friday to leave areas held by Houthi forces, presumably to protect them from upcoming coalition strikes. Regardless of this warning, Saudi Arabia is obligated under international humanitarian law to facilitate access to aid. UN aid chief Stephen O’Brien responded saying the humanitarian community would continue to deliver aid across Yemen impartially on the basis of need.
Is peace in Yemen possible? - International Crisis Group
International Crisis Group has issued a report summarizing the steps that need to be taken by all players in the war in Yemen to achieve a general ceasefire and improve the chances of a durable political settlement. Even before Saudi Arabia launched its military campaign in Yemen, the country was deeply divided: “the intervention has layered a multidimensional, thus more intractable, regional conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran onto an already complex civil war, significantly complicating prospects for peace.” The result is an increasingly entrenched conflict with no end in sight, according to ICG.
Each side’s commitment to UN-led peace talks is lukewarm. Neither is defeated or exhausted; both believe they can make additional military gains; and neither has been willing to make the compromises required to end the violence.
International Crisis Group makes a number of recommendations for each party to ensure a general ceasefire and a durable political settlement. These recommendations include participation by the government of Yemen, the Houthis, and Saleh’s GPC--without delay or preconditions--in UN-brokered negotiations. The Saudi-led coalition must encourage government support for the UN special envoy’s negotiating agenda and suspend military action in San’a as a show of goodwill prior to negotiations.
The UN Security Council permanent members, especially the U.S., UK, and France, must back the UN special envoy and condition the supply of weapons and ammunition to Saudi-led coalition members on their support for an immediate ceasefire and inclusive political negotiations.
Crisis Group also recommends that negotiations be expanded to include additional Yemeni stakeholders, such as the Sunni Islamist Islah party, Salafi groups, and the Southern Resistance. These negotiations should include regional security concerns and Yemen’s economic reconstruction.
Yemeni Threads at The Textile Museum - Washington DC, 2/1/2016
Our 2016 International Yemeni Film & Arts Festival kicks off with this special presentation by textile and jewelry expert Marjorie Ransom:
Yemeni Threads
The mountainous terrain of northern Yemen and the vast expanses of desert in the southern part of the country have long separated Yemenis into discrete communities, each with their own designs and motifs. Marjorie Ransom will introduce you to this remote and beautiful country and its weavings with a richly illustrated presentation. Her book on Yemeni jewelry, Silver Treasures from the Land of Sheba, will also be on display. In addition to silver-work, the book also presents twenty-six costumes and six textiles.
Ms. Ransom will display two rare textiles she is researching, as well as an example of tablet weaving that was the work of Yemeni Jews. The costumes on display will highlight the indigo-dyed fabric worn in the cooler northern climate and the densely embroidered costumes of the flat Tihamah coastal plain that borders the Red Sea. Her costumes from the south display Syrian and Indian fabrics of silk and cotton, and feature couched, twisted silver thread embroidery.
Marjorie Ransom lived twice as a US diplomat in Yemen in a career that also took her to India, Iran, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates, Syria, and Egypt. She and her late husband David Ransom assembled a large collection of jewelry and costumes during their postings. Since retirement, Ms. Ransom has lectured widely about Middle East jewelry and wrote several articles. The Bead Museum in Washington, DC hosted an exhibit of her jewelry, Silver Speaks: Traditional Jewelry of the Middle East in 2002-3; the exhibit traveled to locations in New York and Michigan in 2005-7. In 2006-7, Ms. Ransom lent 78 pieces from her collection to the exhibit, Symbols of Identity — Jewelry of Five Continents, at the Mingei International Museum in San Diego. In 2008 she co-curated an exhibit of her jewelry, Female Adornment from Bilad al-Sham (Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine and Syria), at the Jerusalem Fund in Washington, DC. With research grants, Marjorie Ransom spent a year in Yemen during the years 2004-9 studying traditional silver jewelry and crafts. The American University in Cairo Press published a book of her findings, Silver Treasures from the Land of Sheba: Yemeni Regional Jewelry, in June 2014; through the end of last March they had sold 1500 copies.
Details: Friday, April 1st. Textile display opens at 2:00pm; presentation starts at 4:00pm. This event is free, but registration is required. Click here to register. Hosted by The George Washington University Museum and The Textile Museum, on the campus of George Washington University. This event is co-sponsored by the Yemen Peace Project.
January 31–February 6: Assassinations continue in Aden, resistance gains ground in San‘a
January 31The Saudi-led coalition announced the formation of a “high-level independent committee” to examine charges of possible abuses against civilians in the conflict. The announcement came days after the AFP reported on a leaked report by the UN Sanctions Committee’s panel of experts, which documented 119 violations of international humanitarian law by the coalition. The formation of the committee has been met with understandable skepticism regarding the objectivity of the coalition’s investigation into its own crimes.
Also on Sunday, influential salafi cleric Samahan Abdel-Aziz was abducted and killed in Aden shortly after delivering a sermon against Al-Qaeda and ISIS. His assassination follows a string of attacks on government officials and local activists in the southern city, which is both the center of the Southern independence movement and the provisional capital of the Hadi government.
February 1 The minister of human rights for Hadi’s government in exile, Azzedine Al-Asbahi, announced preliminary statistics on the war that indicate the death of over 10,000 people, with 15,000 wounded, and 2.5 million displaced since the beginning of last year. In the minister’s interview with Al-Hayat, he states that pro-Houthi forces “have caused the largest societal fracture in Yemen, one that poses the threat of another war that could destroy the fabric of society.”
February 3
Forty Houthi fighters were reportedly killed and 30 captured, as clashes continued in Fardhat Nihm, near San’a. Six pro-Hadi fighters and five civilians were also killed. By Friday, pro-Hadi forces
Twelve alleged jihadi militants were killed in Shabwah and Abyan governorates late Wednesday night in two airstrikes apparently carried out by US drones. One of those killed was Jalal Bal’idi al-Marqashi, the commander of Ansar al-Shari'ah in Abyan and Shabwah. His death was reportedly mourned by Al-Qaeda members who distributed a statement on his death on social media.
February 6 The World Bank released a report on Saturday February 6 outlining the economic impacts of ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. Regarding Yemen, the report states that 80% of the country’s population--or 20 million out of a population of 24 million--is now considered poor, an increase of 30% since April 2015, when fighting escalated.
Western states have failed at counterterrorism in Yemen - Saferworld
Saferworld’s new report, “Blown Back,” outlines the mistakes and lessons of the West’s counterterrorism, stabilization, and statebuilding efforts in Yemen. The report also offers recommendations on how the US and other foreign states should reconsider their regional strategies and alliances. External actors’ approaches to Yemen have had significant negative impacts due to an inability, or unwillingness, to prioritize the grievances of Yemen’s people over counterterrorism imperatives. Failure to address these grievances has led to increased popular support of the armed opposition groups that the West is working to eliminate.
Yemen’s most fundamental challenge has been the failure of a state dominated by kleptocratic elites to play a constructive role in addressing the drivers of its instability and poverty...Despairing of political processes, people have turned to group identities to seek redress for grievances, and protect their interests.
In their all-consuming efforts to fight terror, external actors have recklessly provided weapons and equipment to Yemen’s deeply divided security forces despite the high risk of military capacities being diverted from their intended purpose. Furthermore, the use of drones and other sophisticated weaponry by the West, which has killed at least 87 civilians and likely hundreds more, has merely fed anti-US sentiment and boosted recruitment by militant groups. The Saudi-led coalition’s blockade, bombardment, and ground campaign have had a similar effect.
Saferworld’s report advises that, in order to achieve its counterterrorism goals, the West must understand the driving forces behind Yemen’s many conflicts. It should revisit its objectives with a focus on peace while reconsidering its support for fundamentally illegitimate actors. Above all, Western countries need to explore every possible alternative to military attacks inside Yemen as well as demonstrate their genuine commitment to development, justice, and democratic values.
Yemen's rival parties aren't sold on peace - Farea al-Muslimi
December’s peace talks in Switzerland failed to generate a solution to the war in Yemen, a war that is driven both by regional geopolitical rivalries and by factional conflicts within Yemen itself. In an op-ed for Al Jazeera, analyst Farea al-Muslimi argues that this failure is rooted in the interest of all parties involved to remain at war. According to al-Muslimi, one of the founders of the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, Yemen “needs a dealer who can ‘redistribute the cards’ and convince the various players to invest in peace.”
The latest round of peace talks failed because many of those involved do not know what they want out of the UN-mediated process, and because they do not believe it is in their immediate interests to have peace. After nearly a year of war in Yemen, the cycle of business, economy and power now revolves around one main thing: war. Should the fighting suddenly end, many players from both sides would stand to lose.
The Houthis appear to be most comfortable on the battlefield, and if the conflict were to end, they would have to face the undesirable reality of negotiations and power sharing. Meanwhile, former president Saleh, whose agenda differs from that of the Houthis, relies on a state of war to convince those around him that he is indispensable. The Islamist militant organizations that have made notable gains in Yemen certainly have no interest in seeing an end to the conflict that has provided them with the chaos and instability that is so easy to exploit.
Hadi is also a clear loser in any successful peace process as all parties to the conflict would need him to step aside. The Saudi-led coalition, which did not make any attempts at diplomacy prior to waging war, must understand that it will not win by military means. Finally, the West cannot believably call for peace in Yemen while also profiting from weapons sales that are bringing such destruction to the country.
Houthis block food and medicine from entering Ta‘iz - HRW
Houthi forces surrounding Ta‘iz have been reportedly denying entry to aid vehicles and confiscating food and medical supplies from civilians. Human Rights Watch has documented a number of instances, some dating back to at least September, of the Houthis stopping Ta‘iz residents at checkpoints surrounding the city and confiscating fuel, food, medicine, and clothing. Medical aid trucks belonging to the World Health Organization and Médecins Sans Frontières have been turned away from Ta‘iz, preventing the delivery of essential medical supplies, such as oxygen tanks and vaccinations. These practices constitute a violation of international humanitarian law and have had grave consequences for the residents of Ta‘iz. One hospital reported that six premature infants have died in the last two months because the hospital lacks the oxygen tanks and generators necessary to run their incubators.
“The Houthis are denying necessities to residents of Ta‘iz because they happen to be living in areas that opposition forces control,” said Joe Stork, deputy Middle East director. “Seizing property from civilians is already unlawful, but taking their food and medical supplies is simply cruel.”
Although Houthi forces surround Ta‘iz and maintain checkpoints outside of the city, opposition forces commanded by Shaykh Hamud al-Mikhlafi--including the Sunni Islah party and salafi groups--control the city center.
Ta‘iz has been subjected to indiscriminate shelling and some of the heaviest ground fighting in the conflict, forcing two-thirds of its population to flee while the remaining residents are in desperate need of food and medical aid.
New evidence of Coalition's cluster bombs - Amnesty International
Amnesty International is calling on the Saudi-led coalition to immediately stop using cluster munitions after reports surfaced that forces dropped the illegal explosives on San‘a on January 6, 2016. The attacks killed a 16-year-old boy, wounded at least six other civilians, and damaged homes and other property.
Amnesty International spoke to the brother of the 16-year-old boy who was killed in the attack: “At around 5am, he was on his way to the mosque opposite our house in al-Daqeeq district to perform the dawn prayers. We then heard the first explosion. A minute later we heard a series of consecutive explosions in the neighbourhood when the little bombs landed, one of which landed on the roof of our neighbour’s house… My mother found Essa at the mosque door in a pool of his own blood.”
Markings on the bombs’ remnants indicate that they were CBU-58 cluster munitions manufactured in the USA in 1978. The US is known to have transferred 1,000 CBU-58 bombs to Saudi Arabia sometime between 1970 and 1995.
The coalition denies using cluster munitions in San‘a, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, such as the recovery of the bombs’ cylinders and a number of descriptions of the explosions by residents that are consistent with air-dropped cluster munition attacks.
The 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions banned the use, production, sale, and transfer of cluster bombs. Although the US, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen are not parties to the convention, any use of “inherently indiscriminate weapons [such as cluster munitions], which invariably pose a threat to civilians” is prohibited under the rules of customary international humanitarian law.
AQAP and IS benefit from Yemen's war - Gregory Johnsen
Writing in the CTC Sentinel, Yemen specialist and AQAP expert Gregory Johnsen argues that Yemen's ongoing war is benefiting both AQAP and local Islamic State affiliates, though the two groups are often at odds with each other. According to Johnsen, AQAP is taking advantage of the power vacuum that prevails in most of the country, but they're also taking advantage of the conflict in other ways:
As Saudi air strikes target Houthi fighters and military units loyal to former President Salih, AQAP can move into the newly cleared territory. In December 2015, AQAP did just that, retaking two of the towns in Abyan that it had held in 2011 and 2012.[9] In the town of Ja`ar, which had previously served as the group’s de facto capital, AQAP killed the deputy commander of the city’s Popular Committee and reestablished control over Ja`ar, which AQAP refers to as Waqar....
AQAP has also dispatched fighters to conflict zones such as Taiz, where they join the local resistance against the Houthis and make local allies. One of AQAP’s primary goals is to integrate itself into Yemeni society. By fighting the Houthis alongside Yemenis, AQAP is creating new alliances, which its leaders believe will serve them well in the future....Prior to the Saudi-led bombing campaign, AQAP appeared to be in trouble. This is no longer the case. The group is acquiring more territory and, once again, is growing.
Local Islamic State supporters are taking advantage of another resource created by the war: sectarianism.
Just like in Iraq, where Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the group’s spiritual founder, sparked a sectarian civil war by bombing Shi`a mosques, the goal in Yemen seems to be a radicalization of the religious landscape and the grafting of a sectarian war on to the country. The initial attack in March 2015 targeted what the Islamic State later claimed were “Shi`a mosques” in Sana`a....
The Islamic State’s primary goal throughout 2016 will be to further divide the country through sectarian attacks, recreating an Iraqi-style Sunni–Shi`a civil war in Yemen. The more sectarian the war becomes, the stronger the Islamic State will grow as it seeks to portray itself as the true defender of Sunni Islam.
Johnsen predicts that, in addition to fighting the Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition, AQAP and IS will likely go to war against each other in the coming months. He also warns that both organizations might increase their efforts to strike targets outside of Yemen, in order to boost their reputation and gain recruits.